The Washington Commanders will try to end a five-game losing streak when they face the Miami Dolphins in the 2025 NFL Madrid Game on Sunday morning. This Commanders vs Dolphins matchup comes after two very different Week 10 results:
- Washington was beaten 44-22 by the Detroit Lions
- Miami shocked the Buffalo Bills with a 30-13 victory
Both teams are 3-7 and sitting third in their divisions, making this NFL Madrid Game a crucial chance to revive their seasons and attract bettors looking at the Commanders vs Dolphins odds, spread and prediction.
Commanders vs Dolphins Game Details
When and where is Commanders vs Dolphins?
- Stadium: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
- Kickoff time: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Broadcast: NFL Network
- Streaming option: Fubo (free trial available, subject to region)
The Dolphins lead the all-time series 10-6, including a dominant 45-15 win in 2023, so history leans toward Miami in this Commanders vs Dolphins prediction.
Commanders vs Dolphins Odds, Spread and Total
At major sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook, the latest Commanders vs Dolphins odds are:
- Spread: Miami Dolphins -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Moneyline: Dolphins -151, Commanders +126
Bettors who like Miami vs Washington NFL picks see the Dolphins as short road favorites, while total bettors are watching whether this NFL Madrid Game will be a high-scoring battle.
Injury Report: Who’s In and Who’s Out?
Washington Commanders injuries
The Commanders are dealing with major offensive issues heading into this Commanders vs Dolphins game:
- QB Jayden Daniels – OUT (elbow)
- WR Terry McLaurin – OUT (quad)
With their starting quarterback and top receiver sidelined, Washington’s offense vs Dolphins defense will rely heavily on depth and coaching adjustments.
Miami Dolphins injuries
The Dolphins also have concerns:
- OL Austin Jackson – OUT (toe)
- LB Bradley Chubb – Questionable (foot)
- CB Rasul Douglas – Questionable (foot/ankle)
- WR Dee Eskridge – Questionable (shoulder)
Protecting Tua Tagovailoa and maintaining defensive pressure will be key for Miami to justify their status as favorites in the Commanders vs Dolphins spread.
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SportsLine Projection Model Performance
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has a strong long-term record on NFL picks:
- Up more than $7,000 for $100 bettors on top-rated NFL selections since inception
- Enters Week 11 on a 47-32 run with top-rated picks dating back to 2024
For the Commanders vs Dolphins prediction, this model has already crunched the numbers and produced picks on the spread and total. Bettors often refer to this data before locking in their Commanders vs Dolphins bets.
Updated Commanders vs Dolphins Betting Lines
Here’s a quick look at the Commanders vs Dolphins betting lines:
- Spread: Miami Dolphins -2.5
- Total: 47.5 points (Over/Under)
- Moneyline: Dolphins -151, Commanders +126
These numbers highlight a tight but favorable edge for Miami in this neutral-site NFL Madrid Game.
Why the Dolphins Can Cover the Spread
Tua Tagovailoa leading the Dolphins offense
Veteran quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the key to the Dolphins offense:
- Games: 10
- Completion rate: 68.2%
- Passing yards: 1,952
- Touchdowns: 17
- Interceptions: 13
- Passer rating: 87.6
Recent performances:
- vs Bills: 15-of-21 passing, 173 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
- vs Falcons (Oct. 26): 20-of-26 passing, 205 yards, 4 TDs in a 34-10 win
If Tagovailoa protects the ball while maintaining efficiency, Miami’s attack can justify backing the Dolphins -2.5 in Commanders vs Dolphins picks.
De’Von Achane as a dual-threat weapon
Third-year running back De’Von Achane powers the Dolphins rushing attack and short-passing game:
- Carries: 143
- Rushing yards: 780 (5.5 yards per carry)
- Rushing TDs: 5
- Explosive runs (20+ yards): 8 (longest: 59 yards)
- First downs: 32
As a receiver:
- Receptions: 49 (team-high)
- Receiving yards: 325 (6.6 per catch)
- Receiving TDs: 4
His ability to create big plays makes Miami dangerous in space and is a big reason why many bettors favor the Dolphins vs Commanders Over 47.5.
Why the Commanders Can Cover the Spread
Marcus Mariota steps in at quarterback
With Jayden Daniels sidelined, veteran Marcus Mariota gets another start under center for Washington:
- Games: 6
- Completions/Attempts: 72-of-110 (65.5%)
- Passing yards: 852
- Passing TDs: 6
- Interceptions: 4
- Passer rating: 91.9
Recent outings:
- vs Lions: 16-of-22, 213 yards, 2 TDs, plus 5 rushes for 22 yards
- at Chiefs (Oct. 27): 21-of-30, 213 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs in a 28-7 loss
Mariota’s mobility and experience give the Commanders offense a chance to stay competitive in this Commanders vs Dolphins matchup, even without Daniels and McLaurin.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the running game
Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt offers Washington a physical presence and big-play potential:
- Carries: 105
- Rushing yards: 470 (4.5 yards per carry)
- Rushing TDs: 4
- Explosive runs (20+ yards): 2 (longest: 42 yards)
- First downs: 24
Highlight game:
- vs Chargers (27-10 win): 14 carries, 111 yards, 2 TDs
If Croskey-Merritt controls the tempo and keeps Tua Tagovailoa on the sideline, Washington could reward bettors grabbing the Commanders +2.5 in key Commanders vs Dolphins picks against the spread.
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Players can use this offer on Commanders vs Dolphins moneyline, Commanders vs Dolphins spread, or Over/Under markets, depending on their betting strategy.
SportsLine Model’s Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction
According to the SportsLine Projection Model:
- The model is projecting the total to go Over, with around 52 combined points in this NFL Madrid showdown.
- One side of the Commanders vs Dolphins spread is also rated as the better value, based on thousands of simulated outcomes.
For those looking to finalize Commanders vs Dolphins predictions, the model’s analysis suggests offensive success on both sides and a strong case for Over 47.5.
How to Bet Commanders vs Dolphins in Madrid
The 2025 NFL Madrid Game between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offers a compelling mix of storylines: a five-game Washington skid, Miami’s bounce-back win over Buffalo, key injuries on both sides, and a neutral-site stage at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu.
With Tua Tagovailoa and De’Von Achane driving the Dolphins’ offense and Marcus Mariota and Jacory Croskey-Merritt fighting to keep Washington alive in the NFC playoff picture, bettors will find value in the Commanders vs Dolphins spread, moneyline, and total.
Coupled with attractive DraftKings and FanDuel promos, this international matchup is one of the more intriguing betting opportunities of Week 11 for fans looking at Commanders vs Dolphins odds and predictions.
