Many American households may see a significantly larger tax refund in 2026, with projections suggesting checks could be $1,000 to $2,000 higher than usual. The increase is tied to recent tax law changes, updated payroll withholdings, and expanded deductions that will fully apply to the 2026 filing season.
Officials say this refund boost could offer short term relief as families continue to navigate higher living costs, but experts stress that not everyone will benefit equally.
Why Refunds Are Expected to Be Higher
The White House says the projected increase stems from tax changes included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law in July. According to press briefings, an analysis by Piper Sandler estimates that average refunds could be about one-third larger than in prior years.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also pointed to a potential $1,000 to $2,000 swing per household, depending on income, job type, and filing status.
However, tax professionals caution that this does not mean free money. Much of the increase reflects adjustments to payroll withholdings, meaning workers may have already been receiving slightly more take-home pay during 2025.
What’s Actually Changing for Taxpayers
The 2026 tax season covers income earned in 2025, making it the first filing year fully shaped by the new law.
Here are the most important confirmed changes taxpayers should understand.
Higher Standard Deductions
For the 2026 filing season, the standard deduction will increase modestly across all filing categories:
Single filers: $16,100
Married filing jointly: $32,200
Head of household: $24,145
These increases reduce taxable income, which can directly raise refunds or lower what you owe.
Tax Brackets Adjusted for Inflation
The top marginal tax rate remains at 37 percent, but income thresholds for higher brackets are moving up to reflect inflation.
Single filers will enter the top bracket at incomes above $640,600.
Married couples filing jointly will enter at incomes above $768,700.
This shift helps prevent taxpayers from moving into higher brackets solely due to inflation.
AMT and Estate Tax Relief
The Alternative Minimum Tax exemption rises again, offering relief to higher earners who might otherwise be caught by this parallel tax system.
Single filers: $90,100
Married filing jointly: $140,200
The estate tax exclusion also increases to $15 million per estate, up from $13.99 million in 2025.
Earned Income Tax Credit Increase
Low and moderate income working families may benefit from a larger Earned Income Tax Credit.
For families with three or more children, the maximum credit increases to $8,231, up from $8,046.
This credit is refundable, meaning it can increase your refund even if you owe little or no tax.
New Deductions Introduced
One of the most talked-about features of the new law is the creation of temporary deductions for certain types of income and expenses.
Eligible taxpayers may be able to deduct:
Tips
Overtime pay
Car loan interest
A new temporary deduction for seniors
These provisions could meaningfully affect refunds for service workers, hourly employees, and retirees, but eligibility rules will matter.
Important Dates for the 2026 Tax Season
Knowing the timeline can help you avoid delays or surprises.
Mid-January 2026
Final estimated tax payment deadline for 2025 income.
Late January 2026
The IRS opens e-filing. Employers must send W-2 and 1099 forms by January 31.
Mid-February 2026
Refunds for taxpayers claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit cannot be issued before this date by law.
April 15, 2026
Main tax filing deadline. Last day to contribute to IRAs and HSAs for 2025 and to request an extension.
October 15, 2026
Extended filing deadline for those who requested an extension.
The Internal Revenue Service encourages taxpayers to prepare early, especially because new deductions and rule changes may increase the risk of filing errors. Official guidance is available directly from the Internal Revenue Service.
Will Everyone Get a Bigger Refund?
Not necessarily. The size of your refund will depend on several factors:
Income level
Filing status
Type of work you do
Whether you qualify for new deductions or credits
How much tax was withheld during the year
Some households may see a large refund increase, while others may notice little change or even a smaller refund if withholdings were already adjusted.
A Temporary Boost With Uncertain Future
Many of the individual tax provisions driving these changes are scheduled to expire after 2025 unless Congress acts. The administration has proposed making them permanent, but that decision will depend on future legislation.
For now, 2026 may offer a short term refund boost rather than a long term shift in tax policy. Updates and official statements are expected to continue from the White House as the filing season approaches.
